Daily Briefs


Photo : The Straits Times

04 March 2024, Monday | Vol.1 No. 22

The Philippines Coast Guard conducts patrols to deter Chinese research ships

Thailand transfers 900 scam victims to China | South Korean trainee doctors protest to face legal action

CHINA READER DAILY WIRE 

INTERNAL
China kickstarts its Two Sessions meeting of the NPC & CPPCC
On 04 March, according to an article in Al Jazeera titled “What to expect at China’s ‘Two Sessions’ amid sagging economy, party drama,” by Erin Hale, Beijing begins its Two Sessions meeting of the National People Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). These legislative meetings, also known as liangui in Chinese, will run for the next two weeks. The meetings will involve approving new laws and political appointments and presenting government reports from various departments. In the Two Sessions meeting held in 2023, the legislators unanimously voted for Xi Jinping to be the third term as president. The agenda for the 2024 meeting will be based on China’s slowing economy coupled with deflation, debt, and failing exports. Premier Li will present the annual work report and set the goal targets for 2024. NPC is seen as the highest legislative body in China on paper but is less potent than the NPC Standing Committee in practice. NPC is considered a rubber stamp as its primary function involves formal approval of the decisions agreed upon and rarely exhibits any dissent or veto. (Erin Hale, “What to expect at China’s ‘Two Sessions’ amid sagging economy, party drama,” Al Jazeera, 03 March 2024)

Xi sets to groom next-gen party leaders but no successor yet, says The Strait Times
On 03 March, according to a commentary in The Strait Times, in January, China’s State Council promoted three senior government officials and another six on 23 February for the annual Parliament session on 04 March. Four of the nine officials belong to the post-1970s generation (7G). Out of nine, former president Hu Jintao’s son Hu Haifeng is the youngest promoted official to the position of vice-minister for civil affairs. The four officials belonged to the “third echelon” (disan tidui) under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s to groom successive vice ministers and vice governor cadres. The list of 171 CPC’s Central Committee members will give President Xi options to pick and groom to become the country’s future leader. Out of 171 members, 154 are newcomers, indicating the role of young people in leadership positions. Professor Wu Guoguang, senior research scholar at Stanford Centre on China’s Economy and Institutions at Stanford University, said that the chances of Xi’s potential heir will come from the 7G group. Wu also noted that Xi has established his power base by replacing his rivals with loyalists and aiming to groom them as the next generation of leaders. (Benjamin Kang Lim and Tan Dawn Wei, “China’s Xi grooms next-generation party leaders, but no anointed heir yet,” The Straits Times, 

ECONOMY
Rise in China’s middle-income population, Opinion
On 03 March, according to an opinion published in the state-owned Economic Daily, China’s middle-income population reached 500 million. It highlighted that increased purchasing power and technological innovation will drive the country’s future growth. It was published as part of a series named “How China is Going to Maintain Relatively Fast Long-term Growth.” The article referred to Walt Rostow’s stages of growth theory and said that China’s market has huge development potential and global appeal. The officials expect China’s large population to drive the consumption demand heavily. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, Consumption was the primary growth driver, with a rise of 83 per cent in the GDP. China’s disposable income per capita stood at 39,218 yuan, 6.1 per cent from 2022. According to Zhang Wenkui, China’s goal is to maintain a 5 per cent economic growth rate. Also, China’s per capita income is 17 per cent compared to the US, which won’t classify it as a wealthy and developed country. (Mandy Zuo, “China’s middle-income population passes 500 million mark, state-owned newspaper says,” South China Morning Post, 03 March 2024)

Xi to go against market expectations for long-term stimulus, Opinion
On 04 March, according to an opinion in the Financial Times, China will begin its session at the National People’s Congress on 05 March to discuss the country’s future growth targets. The NPC meeting will be crucial for China as it takes place on the 75th anniversary of the PRC in 2024 amid the real estate crisis, deflationary pressures, and eroding investors’ confidence. According to Neil Thomas at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, Xi views the country’s current economic challenges as necessary to be dealt with to achieve the long-term goals for greater development. Premier Li is expected to set a growth target of 5 per cent this year. Also, Xi is looking to hire new members, like looking for a new foreign minister to replace Wang Yi, who took charge after Qin Gang was suddenly expelled from his office in 2023. According to Moody’s Analytics, China needs to focus more on domestic consumption rather than investment for higher growth in 2024. However, according to Heron Lim, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, China will focus more on its industrial policy by investing in property markets and advanced manufacturing. (Joe Leahy, “China’s Xi Jinping to resist market pressure to step up stimulus efforts,” Financial Times, 04 March 2024)

Another Chinese economic crisis is making
On 03 March, according to an editorial in The Wall Street Journal titled “The World Is in for Another China Shock” by Jason Douglas, contrary to its past filled with China’s rise, the Chinese economy is slowing with greater deflationary trends. To avoid the dumping of cheap Chinese exports into their economy, which had driven domestic businesses out, the US, Europe, and Japan have started offering financial support to their industries and imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. According to a paper in 2019, China’s accession into the WTO in 2001 led to a fall in the consumer prices in the US for goods by 2 per cent for every extra share gained by Chinese exports. Autor estimated that between 1999 and 2011, the US lost more than 2 million jobs due to Chinese imports. Currently, the West sees China as its main economic rival, with former US President Trump imposing up to 60 per cent or higher tariffs against Chinese imports. With the growing protectionism and shift towards high-end manufacturing by South Korea and Japan, China still commands an edge in low-end manufacturing and is diversifying its markets. (Jason Douglas, “The World Is in for Another China Shock,” The Wall Street Journal, 03 March 2024) 

CHINA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
The Philippines Coast Guard conducts patrols to deter Chinese research ships
On 04 March, the Philippines delayed its coast guard ship to undertake a two-week patrol to monitor and check the growing presence of Chinese research ships near the Benham Rise, which is located near the Philippines' east coast. In 2017, Manila renamed it “Philippine Rise.” The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) said that its vessel will undertake maritime domain awareness near northern Luzon Island and monitor the local fishermen and the Chinese research vessels. According to the director of SeaLight at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Ray Powell said that on 01 March, two Chinese research vessels left a port in Longxue Island in Guangzhou on 26 February and were sailing around the northeast of Benham Rise, within the Philippines exclusive economic zone. (“The Philippines conducts marine patrols to check the presence of Chinese research ships,” The Straits Times, 04 March 2024)

Chinese embassy expresses its dissent on Philippines’ South China Sea remarks
On 03 March, the Chinese embassy in Manila strongly protested against the Philippines ambassador’s statement and said that he had disregarded basic facts. On 28 February, the Philippine Ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, said that the West Philippine Sea is the next flashpoint concerning the South China Sea and the Taiwan conflict. The Chinese embassy urged the ambassador to stop spreading lies about China as a regional threat. He indirectly targeted the US, saying that inviting outsiders would not lead to a peaceful resolution of the ongoing problem between the two sides. This happens amid China’s claim over the entire South China Sea and Beijing and Manila exchanging accusations over the sovereign claim in the disputed regions. (“China’s embassy condemns Philippine envoy’s remarks on South China Sea,” The Straits Times, 03 March 2024)

CHINA & SOUTHEAST ASIA
Thailand transfers 900 scam victims to China
On 03 March, Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced that 900 Chinese citizens that were trapped in Myanmar border scam centers were transferred to China. Myanmar and other Southeast Asian countries have become hotspots for online fraud and human trafficking, where they were forced to work in scam centers by criminal gangs. The Royal Thai Police spearheaded the operations from 29 February to 02 March, where they transferred the Chinese nationals from the Myanmar border town of Myawaddy to the Thai district of Mae Sot and eventually boarded Chinese planes. PM Srettha said: “This was a joint voluntary operation between three countries, China, Myanmar and Thailand,” and that “The process was done voluntarily, based on humanitarian principles, it was not forced.” The operation used 15 flights and three days of trip to return to China. This comes after in 2023, Myanmar handed over 31,000 telecom fraud suspects to China, in a joint crackdown initiative between Myanmar and China. (“Thailand facilitates the transfer of 900 scam victims from Myanmar to China,” The Straits Times, 03 March 2024)

CHINA & THE MIDDLE EAST
China’s Red Sea peace negotiation to yield no result, SCMP
On 04 March, an editorial in the South China Morning Post, titled, “Why China’s Red Sea diplomatic mission is unlikely to stop Houthi shipping attacks,” by Zhao Ziwen stated that the diplomatic missions by China in the Red Sea would yield no result. Ziwen owes this to China’s reluctance to intervene further as it also refuses to giveaway its neutral international stance. The Chinese have been consistently trying to subdue the conflict in the Red, aiming to restore safety and stability. In February, Ziwen states that the Director General for the West Asian and North African department Wang Yi met with the Omani, Saudi Arabian and Yemeni officials. During his visits, he highlighted China’s call for a peaceful ceasefire of the Israel-Palestine conflict which had the spillover effect in the Red Sea. Drector of the School of Arabic Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, Liu Xinlu said: “Although the Yemeni Houthis have not launched attacks on Chinese ships and have given such facilities to [Chinese] personnel and enterprises, the Red Sea corridor is related to world shipping, so the transport of oil and gas resources and commodities still has a relatively large impact [on China].” (Zhao Ziwen, “Why China’s Red Sea diplomatic mission is unlikely to stop Houthi shipping attacks,” South China Morning Post, 04 March 2024)

CHINA & AFRICA
China-based phone giants on the rise in the African market, SCMP
On 03 March 2024, an editorial in the South China Morning Post, titled, “Chinese-made phones are calling the shots in Africa as they beat global giants Samsung and Apple,” by Jevans Nyabiage looked into the rising market in Africa for China manufactured Phones. Some of the major China-based giants selling in Africa are, Transsion which manufactures for companies like Tecno, Infinix and iTel. These companies are unknown to Chinese nationals as they are exclusively sold mostly in Africa and later expanding to Latin America, India Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. In 2023, the Transsion’s, Tecno brand phone company surpassed Samsung and Apple sales in the Middle East and Africa. This success has encouraged more Chinese firms to establish themselves in Africa and the Middle East. An analyst in Counterpoint stated that Tecno’s growth is attributed to its two major bestsellers Tecno Pop 7 and the Camon 20. They also attributed this success to the healing economic factors, with a better macroeconomic environment, energy prices down with inflation and the local currency stabilized. There has been a boost in consumer confidence in lower-income households and that is where Transsion brand companies have invested in, mid-to-lower-tier smartphones. International Data Corporation (IDC) reported that Transsion shipped 95 million smartphones in 2023, a 30 per cent hike from 2022. (Jevans Nyabiage, “Chinese-made phones are calling the shots in Africa as they beat global giants Samsung and Apple,” South China Morning Post, 03 March 2024)
 



EAST ASIA & THE PACIFIC READER

EAST ASIA
South Korean trainee doctors protest to face legal action
On 04 March, the South Korean Health Ministry announced that authorities would take legal action against the trainee doctors who refused to come back to work and end their walkout protest. The protest came in response to the government’s proposal to increase medical school admission candidates. It is estimated around 9,000 trainee doctors and 70 per cent of the South Korean doctors walked out, which led to the cancellation of several surgical procedures, in turn straining the emergency department. The government warned that the protesting doctors would face administrative actions and even the suspension of their medical licenses, fines and jail terms. Health Minister Cho Kyoo-hong said: “From today, we plan to conduct on-site inspections to confirm trainee doctors who have not returned, and take action according to the law and principle without exception.” Additionally, Cho warned that this would affect their career path. For the doctors who do return, they would consider the circumstances while looking into their actions. Patients have been complaining about the ongoing protest stating that “Doctors should first return and reassure patients and their families, and then have a dialogue with the government.” The World Medical Association condemned the provision introduced by the government, and the stifling of leaders in the Korean Medical Association, who have the right to collective action. (“South Korea to start legal action against doctors over walkout,” The Straits Times, 04 March 2024)

South Korea and the US kickstart “The Freedom Sheild Exercise”
On 04 March, South Korea and the US kickstarted their annual spring drills, where twice the number of soldiers joined. The drills would focus on deterring North Korea and its nuclear threat. The Freedom Sheild Exercise comes in after the incessant North Korean test ballistic missile launches. They also started their annual battalion-level Ssangmae exercises. The Freedom Shield drills will include 48 rounds of combined field training, air assault training and air strikes training, informed the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff. The exercise's primary aim is to locate identify and then strike the missiles by North Korea. The US Forces Korea said that the US assets like their aircraft carrier and bomber would be deployed in the region. (“South Korea, US troops kick off annual drills over North threats,” The Straits Times, 04 March 2024)

THE PACIFIC
Australia to fund USD 286.5 million for ASEAN projects
On 04 March, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong at the Australia-ASEAN summit announced USD 286.5 million funding for the ASEAN projects. The areas they would be focusing on are maritime security and defence building. They believe that the countries in the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia and facing imminent security threats and that’s why they need to set aside funding for maritime security in the region and form a pact with the ASEAN countries. This funding comes in light of the growing tensions in the South China Sea, Wong said: “We face destabilizing, provocative and coercive actions including unsafe conduct at sea and in the air.” Wong also emphasized that whatever happens in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Mekong region affects us all. Australia used its 50th anniversary to bolster ties with Southeast Asian countries. Philippine’s Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo stated that the South China Sea is a strategic region and holds a promising future if and only the regions resolve their issues and “uphold cooperation over confrontation and diplomacy over the use or the threat of use of force.” (“Australia warns South-east Asia of ‘coercive actions’,” The Straits Times, 04 March 2024)
 

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